@article{fdi:010080940,
  title = {{S}patio-temporal dynamics of {P}lasmodium falciparum and {P}lasmodium vivax in {F}rench {G}uiana : 2005-2019},
  author = {{S}cully, {J}. and {M}osnier, {E}. and {C}arbunar, {A}. and {R}oux, {E}mmanuel and {D}jossou, {F}. and {G}arceran, {N}. and {M}usset, {L}. and {S}anna, {A}. and {D}emar, {M}. and {N}acher, {M}. and {G}audart, {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}ims: {T}his study examines the dynamics of malaria as influenced by meteorological factors in {F}rench {G}uiana from 2005 to 2019. {I}t explores spatial hotspots of malaria transmission and aims to determine the factors associated with variation of hotspots with time. {M}ethods: {D}ata for individual malaria cases came from the surveillance system of the {D}elocalized {C}enters for {P}revention and {C}are ({CDPS}) (n = 17) from 2005-2019. {M}eteorological data was acquired from the {NASA} {G}oddard {E}arth {S}ciences {D}ata and {I}nformation {S}ervices {C}enter ({GES} {DISC}) database. {T}he {B}ox-{J}enkins autoregressive integrated moving average ({ARIMA}) model tested stationarity of the time series, and the impact of meteorological indices (issued from principal component analysis-{PCA}) on malaria incidence was determined with a general additive model. {H}otspot characterization was performed using spatial scan statistics. {R}esults: {T}he current sample includes 7050 eligible {P}lasmodium vivax (n = 4111) and {P}lasmodium falciparum (n = 2939) cases from health centers across {F}rench {G}uiana. {T}he first and second {PCA}-derived meteorological components (maximum/minimum temperature/minimum humidity and maximum humidity, respectively) were significantly negatively correlated with total malaria incidence with a lag of one week and 10 days, respectively. {O}verall malaria incidence decreased across the time series until 2017 when incidence began to trend upwards. {H}otspot characterization revealed a few health centers that exhibited spatial stability across the entire time series: {S}aint {G}eorges de l'{O}yapock and {A}ntecume {P}ata for {P}. falciparum, and {S}aint {G}eorges de l'{O}yapock, {A}ntecume {P}ata, {R}egina and {C}amopi for {P}. vivax. {C}onclusions: {T}his study highlighted changing malaria incidence in {F}rench {G}uiana and the influences of meteorological factors on transmission. {M}any health centers showed spatial stability in transmission, albeit not temporal. {K}nowledge of the areas of high transmission as well as how and why transmission has changed over time can inform strategies to reduce the transmission of malaria in {F}rench {G}uiana. {H}otspots should be further investigated to understand other influences on local transmission, which will help to facilitate elimination.},
  keywords = {malaria ; meteorological factors ; {P}lasmodium vivax ; {P}lasmodium ; falciparum ; {A}mazonia ; {F}rench {G}uiana ; hotspots ; {GUYANE} {FRANCAISE} ; {AMAZONIE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{I}nternational {J}ournal of {E}nvironmental {R}esearch and {P}ublic {H}ealth},
  volume = {18},
  numero = {3},
  pages = {1077 [12 p.]},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.3390/ijerph18031077},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010080940},
}