@article{fdi:010080922,
  title = {{T}ropical {I}ndian {O}cean and {ENSO} relationships in a changed climate},
  author = {{M}arathe, {S}. and {T}erray, {P}ascal and {K}arumuri, {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{W}e explore the current (1958-2005 period) and near future (2006-2050 period) teleconnections between {E}l {N}ino {S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}), {I}ndian {O}cean {B}asin {M}ode ({IOBM}), and {I}ndian {O}cean {D}ipole ({IOD}) as simulated in historical and {R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athway ({RCP}8.5) simulations of 32 coupled models that participated in the phase five of {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({CMIP}5). {A} set of 16 {CMIP}5 models out of 32 models, which perform best to simulate tropical climate variability in recent decades, is first selected using a robust method based on the {E}mpirical {O}rthogonal {F}unction analysis for detailed analysis. {M}ost of these models show modest capability in reproducing the seasonal cycle of {ENSO} types in the current period. {F}urther, amplitude of {I}ndian {O}cean ({IO}) modes is overestimated by the 16 models along with large inter-model spread. {B}ased on these results, a subset of 9 models is formed, which simulate a realistic seasonal phase-locking of {ENSO} for a robust assessment of future teleconnections. {N}o significant change in {E}l {N}ino amplitude is detected in near future. {H}owever, the {IOBM} is projected to be weaker during late spring and early summer. {T}he {IOD} is projected to be stronger during boreal summer in the future relative to the current period. {W}e also investigate if there are any changes from historical to {RCP} 8.5 simulations in the strength of the {IO} negative feedback on {ENSO} with a multiple linear regression approach. {T}he {IO} negative feedback strengthens significantly in the {RCP}8.5 scenario due to the increasing role of {IOBM} in speeding the transition from {E}l {N}ino to {L}a {N}ina, despite its reduction of amplitude. {I}n contrast, {IOD} loses its predictive value in the future projections.},
  keywords = {{ENSO} ; {IOD} ; {IOBM} ; {T}eleconnections ; {CMIP}5 ; {L}ead correlations ; {OCEAN} {INDIEN} ; {ZONE} {TROPICALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {56},
  numero = {9-10},
  pages = {3255--3276},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-021-05641-y},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010080922},
}