@article{fdi:010080468,
  title = {{P}rojected effects of climate-induced changes in hydrodynamics on the biogeochemistry of the {M}editerranean {S}ea under the {RCP} 8.5 regional climate scenario},
  author = {{P}ages, {R}. and {B}aklouti, {M}. and {B}arrier, {N}icolas and {A}yache, {M}. and {S}evault, {F}. and {S}omot, {S}. and {M}outin, {T}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {M}editerranean region has been shown to be particularly exposed to climate change, with observed trends that are more pronounced than the global tendency. {I}n forecast studies based on a {RCP} 8.5 scenario, there seems to be a consensus that, along with an increase in temperature and salinity over the next century, a reduction in the intensity of deep-water formation and a shallowing of the mixed layer [especially in the {N}orth-{W}estern {M}editerranean {S}ea ({MS})] are expected. {B}y contrast, only a few studies have investigated the effects of climate change on the biogeochemistry of the {MS} using a 3{D} physical/biogeochemical model. {I}n this study, our aim was to explore the impact of the variations in hydrodynamic forcing induced by climate change on the biogeochemistry of the {MS} over the next century. {F}or this purpose, high-resolution simulations under the {RCP} 8.5 emission scenario have been run using the regional climate system model {CNRM}-{RCSM}4 including the {NEMO}-{MED}8 marine component, coupled (off-line) with the biogeochemical model {E}co3{M}-{M}ed. {T}he results of this scenario first highlight that most of the changes in the biogeochemistry of the {MS} will occur (under the {RCP} 8.5 scenario) after 2050. {T}hey suggest that the {MS} will become increasingly oligotrophic, and therefore less and less productive (14% decrease in integrated primary production in the {W}estern {B}asin and in the {E}astern {B}asin). {S}ignificant changes would also occur in the planktonic food web, with a reduction (22% in the {W}estern {B}asin and 38% in the {E}astern {B}asin) of large phytoplankton species abundance in favor of small organisms. {O}rganisms will also be more and more {N}-limited in the future since {NO}3 concentrations are expected to decline more than those of {PO}4 in the surface layer. {A}ll these changes would mainly concern the {W}estern {B}asin, while the {E}astern {B}asin would be less impacted.},
  keywords = {{M}editerranean {S}ea ; coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model ; {RCP} scenario ; biogeochemistry ; climate change ; {MEDITERRANEE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{F}rontiers in {M}arine {S}cience},
  volume = {7},
  numero = {},
  pages = {563615 [17 p.]},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.3389/fmars.2020.563615},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010080468},
}