@article{fdi:010080431,
  title = {{I}mpact of climate change on surface stirring and transport in the {M}editerranean sea},
  author = {{S}er-{G}iacomi, {E}. and {J}orda-{S}anchez, {G}. and {S}oto-{N}avarro, {J}. and {T}homsen, {S}. and {M}ignot, {J}uliette and {S}evault, {F}. and {R}ossi, {V}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{U}nderstanding how climate change will affect oceanic fluid transport is crucial for environmental applications and human activities. {H}owever, a synoptic characterization of the influence of climate change on mesoscale stirring and transport in the surface ocean is missing. {T}o bridge this gap, we exploit a high-resolution, fully coupled climate model of the {M}editerranean basin using a {N}etwork {T}heory approach. {W}e project significant increases of horizontal stirring and kinetic energies in the next century, likely due to increments of available potential energy. {T}he future evolution of basin-scale transport patterns hints at a rearrangement of the main hydrodynamic provinces, defined as regions of the surface ocean that are well mixed internally but with minimal cross-flow across their boundaries. {T}his results in increased heterogeneity of province sizes and stronger mixing in their interiors. {O}ur approach can be readily applied to other oceanic regions, providing information for the present and future marine spatial planning. {P}lain {L}anguage {S}ummary {T}ransport and mixing of water masses driven by ocean currents influence a variety of fundamental processes, including heat redistribution, ecosystem functioning, and pollutants spreading. {T}herefore, understanding how fluid transport will be affected by climate change is crucial, in particular in the ocean surface, where marine life and human activities are concentrated. {H}ere, we exploit a state-of-the-art climate model over the {M}editerranean basin using a novel methodology which integrates {N}etwork {T}heory concepts with {L}agrangian modeling. {W}e assess past conditions and future changes at climatic scales of ocean stirring and transport over the entire basin. {O}ur results reveal a significant increment of surface stirring linked to an increase of currents kinetic energy, which in turn could be ascribed to increments of available potential energy. {W}e then provide a regionalization of the ocean surface based on hydrodynamic provinces that are well mixed internally but with little leaking across their boundaries. {O}ur model project an increased heterogeneity of province sizes and a stronger mixing in their interiors, while their mean area and coherence remain unaffected. {O}ur approach could be applied to other oceanic domains and help designing adaptive strategies for marine spatial planning.},
  keywords = {{MEDITERRANEE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}eophysical {R}esearch {L}etters},
  volume = {47},
  numero = {22},
  pages = {e2020{GL}089941 [12 p.]},
  ISSN = {0094-8276},
  year = {2020},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010080431},
}