@article{fdi:010080269,
  title = {{F}orecasting the effectiveness of the {D}e{W}orm3 trial interrupting the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths in three study sites in {B}enin, {I}ndia and {M}alawi},
  author = {{T}ruscott, {J}.{E}. and {H}ardwick, {R}.{J}. and {W}erkman, {M}. and {K}aliappan {S}aravanakumar, {P}. and {M}anuel, {M}. and {A}jjampur, {S}.{S}.{R}. and {A}sbj{\¨o}rnsdóttir, {K}.{H}. and {K}humbo, {K}. and {W}itek-{M}c{M}anus, {S}. and {S}imwanza, {J}. and {C}ottrell, {G}illes and {H}oungb{\'e}gnon, {P}. and {I}bikounl{\'e}, {M}. and {W}alson, {J}.{L}. and {A}nderson, {R}.{M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground: {T}he {D}e{W}orm3 project is an ongoing cluster-randomised trial assessing the feasibility of interrupting

the transmission of soil-transmitted helminths ({STH}) through mass drug administration ({MDA}) using study sites in

{I}ndia, {M}alawi and {B}enin. {I}n this article, we describe an approach which uses a combination of statistical and mathematical

methods to forecast the outcome of the trial with respect to its stated goal of reducing the prevalence of

infection to below 2%.

{M}ethods: {O}ur approach is first to define the local patterns of transmission within each study site, which is achieved

by statistical inference of key epidemiological parameters using the baseline epidemiological measures of age-related

prevalence and intensity of {STH} infection which have been collected by the {D}e{W}orm3 trials team. {W}e use these

inferred parameters to calibrate an individual-based stochastic simulation of the trial at the cluster and study site level,

which is subsequently run to forecast the future prevalence of {STH} infections. {T}he simulator takes into account both

the uncertainties in parameter estimation and the variability inherent in epidemiological and demographic processes

in the simulator. {W}e interpret the forecast results from our simulation with reference to the stated goal of the

{D}e{W}orm3 trial, to achieve a target of 2% prevalence at a point 24 months post-cessation of {MDA}.

{R}esults: {S}imulated output predicts that the two arms will be distinguishable from each other in all three country

sites at the study end point. {I}n {I}ndia and {M}alawi, measured prevalence in the intervention arm is below the threshold

with a high probability (90% and 95%, respectively), but in {B}enin the heterogeneity between clusters prevents

the arm prevalence from being reduced below the threshold value. {A}t the level of individual study arms within each

site, heterogeneity among clusters leads to a very low probability of achieving complete elimination in an intervention

arm, yielding a post-study scenario with widespread elimination but a few ?hot spot' areas of persisting {STH}

transmission.},
  keywords = {{BENIN} ; {MALAWI} ; {INDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}arasites and {V}ectors},
  volume = {14},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {67 [13 ]},
  ISSN = {1756-3305},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1186/s13071-020-04572-7},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010080269},
}