@article{fdi:010080100,
  title = {{M}esoscale simulation of tropical cyclones in the {S}outh {P}acific : climatology and interannual variability},
  author = {{J}ourdain, {N}. {C}. and {M}archesiello, {P}atrick and {M}enk{\`e}s, {C}hristophe and {L}ef{\`e}vre, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {V}incent, {E}. {M}. and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {C}hauvin, {F}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he {W}eather {R}esearch and {F}orecast model at 1/3 degrees resolution is used to simulate the statistics of tropical cyclone ({TC}) activity in the present climate of the {S}outh {P}acific. {I}n addition to the large-scale conditions, the model is shown to reproduce a wide range of mesoscale convective systems. {T}ropical cyclones grow from the most intense of these systems formed along the {S}outh {P}acific convergence zone ({SPCZ}) and sometimes develop into hurricanes. {T}he three-dimensional structure of simulated tropical cyclones is in excellent agreement with dropsondes and satellite observations. {T}he mean seasonal and spatial distributions of {TC} genesis and occurrence are also in good agreement with the {J}oint {T}yphoon {W}arning {C}enter ({JTWC}) data. {I}t is noted, however, that the spatial pattern of {TC} activity is shifted to the northeast because of a similar bias in the environmental forcing. {O}ver the whole genesis area, 8.2 +/- 3.5 cyclones are produced seasonally in the model, compared with 6.6 +/- 3.0 in the {JTWC} data. {P}art of the interannual variability is associated with {E}l {N}ino-{S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}). {ENSO}-driven displacement of the {SPCZ} position produces a dipole pattern of correlation and results in a weaker correlation when the opposing correlations of the dipole are amalgamated over the entire {S}outh {P}acific region. {A}s a result, environmentally forced variability at the regional scale is relatively weak, that is, of comparable order to stochastic variability (+/- 1.7 cyclones yr(-1)), which is estimated from a 10-yr climatological simulation. {S}tochastic variability appears essentially related to mesoscale interactions, which also affect {TC} tracks and the resulting occurrence.},
  keywords = {{PACIFIQUE} {SUD}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {C}limate},
  volume = {24},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {3--25},
  ISSN = {0894-8755},
  year = {2011},
  DOI = {10.1175/2010jcli3559.1},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010080100},
}