@article{fdi:010079961,
  title = {{I}mpact of climate change in {W}est {A}frica on cereal production per capita in 2050},
  author = {{D}efrance, {D}imitri and {S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {C}astets, {M}. and {F}amien, {A}. {M}. and {B}aron, {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{F}ood security is a crucial issue in the {S}ahel and could be endangered by climate change and demographic pressure during the 21st century. {H}igher temperatures and changes in rainfall induced by global warming are threatening rainfed agriculture in this region while the population is expected to increase approximately three-fold until 2050. {O}ur study quantifies the impact of climate change on food security by combining climate modelling (16 models from {CMIP}5), crop yield (simulated by agronomic model, {SARRA}-{O}) and demographic evolution (provided by {UN} projection) under two future climatic scenarios. {W}e simulate yield for the main crops in five countries in {W}est {A}frica and estimate the population pressure on crop production to assess the number of available cereal production per capita. {W}e found that, although uncertain, the {A}frican monsoon evolution leads to an increase of rainfall in {E}astern {S}ahel and a decrease in {W}estern {S}ahel under the {RCP}8.5 ({R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athway) scenario from {IPCC}, leading to the higher temperature increase by the end of the 21st century. {W}ith regard to the abundance of food for the inhabitants, all the scenarios in each country show that in 2050, local agricultural production will be below 50 kg per capita. {T}his situation can have impact on crop import and regional migration.},
  keywords = {climate change ; rainfed agriculture ; {W}est {A}frica ; human vulnerability ; climate change impact assessment ; food security ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST} ; {AFRIQUE} {SUBSAHARIENNE} ; {BURKINA} {FASO} ; {MALI} ; {NIGER} ; {NIGERIA} ; {SENEGAL} ; {ZONE} {SAHELIENNE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{S}ustainability},
  volume = {12},
  numero = {18},
  pages = {7585 [19]},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.3390/su12187585},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079961},
}