@article{fdi:010079859,
  title = {{C}limate change-induced emergence of novel biogeochemical provinces},
  author = {{R}eygondeau, {G}. and {C}heung, {W}. {W}. {L}. and {W}abnitz, {C}. {C}. {C}. and {L}am, {V}. {W}. {Y}. and {F}rolicher, {T}. and {M}aury, {O}livier},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he global ocean is commonly partitioned into 4 biomes subdivided into 56 biogeochemical provinces ({BGCP}s) following the accepted division proposed by {L}onghurst in 1998. {E}ach province corresponds to a unique regional environment that shapes biodiversity and constrains ecosystem structure and functions. {B}iogeochemical provinces are dynamic entities that change their spatial extent and position with climate and are expected to be perturbated in the near future by global climate change. {H}ere, we characterize the changes in spatial distribution of {BGCP}s from 1950 to 2100 using three earth system models under two representative concentration pathways ({RCP} 2.6 and 8.5). {W}e project a reorganization of the current distribution of {BGCP}s driven mostly by a poleward shift in their distribution (18.4 km in average per decade). {P}rojection of the future distribution of {BGCP}s also revealed the emergence of new climate that has no analog with past and current environmental conditions. {T}hese novel environmental conditions, here named {N}o-{A}nalog {BGCP}s {S}tate ({NABS}), will expand from 2040 to 2100 at a rate of 4.3 {M}km(2) per decade (1.2% of the global ocean). {W}e subsequently quantified the potential number of marine species and annual volume of fisheries catches that would experience such novel environmental conditions to roughly evaluate the impact of {NABS} on ecosystem services.},
  keywords = {physical oceanography ; marine biogeography ; pelagic environment ; novel ocean climate ; environmental niche model ; {MONDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{F}rontiers in {M}arine {S}cience},
  volume = {7},
  numero = {},
  pages = {657 [10 p.]},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.3389/fmars.2020.00657},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079859},
}