@article{fdi:010079572,
  title = {{P}robabilistic projection of the sex ratio at birth and missing female births by {S}tate and {U}nion {T}erritory in {I}ndia},
  author = {{C}hao, {F}. {Q}. and {G}uilmoto, {C}hristophe and {S}amir, {K}. {C}. and {O}mbao, {H}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he sex ratio at birth ({SRB}) in {I}ndia has been reported to be imbalanced since the 1970s. {P}revious studies have shown there is a great variation in the {SRB} between geographic locations across {I}ndia till 2016. {C}onsidering the enormous population and regional heterogeneity of {I}ndia, producing probabilistic {SRB} projections at the state level is crucial for policy planning and population projection. {I}n this paper, we implement a {B}ayesian hierarchical time series model to project the {SRB} across {I}ndia by state. {W}e generate {SRB} probabilistic projections from 2017 to 2030 for 29 {S}tates and {U}nion {T}erritories ({UT}s) in {I}ndia, and present results for 21 {S}tates/{UT}s with data available from the {S}ample {R}egistration {S}ystem. {O}ur analysis takes into account two state-specific factors that contribute to sex-selective abortion in {I}ndia, resulting in sex imbalances at birth: the intensity of son preference and fertility squeeze. {W}e project that the highest deficits in female births will occur in {U}ttar {P}radesh, with a cumulative number of missing female births of 2.0 (95% credible interval [1.9; 2.2]) million from 2017 to 2030. {T}he total female birth deficits during 2017-2030 for the whole of {I}ndia is projected to be 6.8 [6.6; 7.0] million.},
  keywords = {{INDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{PL}o{S} {O}ne},
  volume = {15},
  numero = {8},
  pages = {e0236673 [17 ]},
  ISSN = {1932-6203},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.1371/journal.pone.0236673},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079572},
}