@article{fdi:010079563,
  title = {{Q}uantifying the relative performance of two undetected-extinction models},
  author = {{L}um, {D}. and {T}edesco, {P}ablo and {H}ugueny, {B}ernard and {G}iam, {X}. {L}. and {C}hisholm, {R}. {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{E}xtinctions of undiscovered species (undetected extinctions) constitute a portion of biodiversity loss that is often ignored. {W}e compared the performance of 2 models of undetected extinctions - {T}edesco and {SEUX} - when estimating undetected extinctions with both simulated and real-world data. {W}e generated simulated data by considering a birth-death process in which less abundant species were more likely to go extinct. {W}hen detection rates were higher for common species, the 2 models underestimated the true number of undetected extinctions by up to 88.7%, and when detection rates were independent of abundance, the 2 models performed better; the {SEUX} model had an average bias of +3.1% and the {T}edesco model had an average bias of -62.3%. {W}e applied the models to 8 real-world data sets (e.g., {A}ustralian amphibians, {A}ustralian birds, {N}orth {A}merican bivalves) and found that true extinctions may be from 15% to 180% higher than observed values. {F}or 6 of the 8 data sets, the {SEUX} model yielded absolute estimates that were 5.7-66.8% lower than those of the {T}edesco model. {W}e mainly attributed this difference to the {SEUX} model's assumption that there are no undetected extant species currently. {W}e assessed the accuracy of the models' estimates with a logistic regression to test whether detection and extinction rates were uncorrelated across species. {R}ates were correlated for 3 of the 8 data sets; species discovered later had a higher probability of being extinct, suggesting that extinction numbers could be even higher for these groups. {D}espite caveats associated with the models, the evidence from both show biodiversity loss in these groups may be more severe than what has been documented.},
  keywords = {biodiversity loss ; conservation ; description curve ; model comparison ; simulations},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}onservation {B}iology},
  volume = {35},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {239--248},
  ISSN = {0888-8892},
  year = {2021},
  DOI = {10.1111/cobi.13562},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079563},
}