@article{fdi:010079421,
title = {{P}rediction of confinement effects on the number of {C}ovid-19 outbreak in {A}lgeria},
author = {{M}oussaoui, {A}. and {A}uger, {P}ierre},
editor = {},
language = {{ENG}},
abstract = {{T}he first case of coronavirus disease 2019 ({COVID}-19) in {A}lgeria was reported on 25 {F}ebruary 2020. {S}ince then, it has progressed rapidly and the number of cases grow exponentially each day. {I}n this article, we utilize {SEIR} modelling to forecast {COVID}-19 outbreak in {A}lgeria under two scenarios by using the real-time data from {M}arch 01 to {A}pril 10, 2020. {I}n the first scenario: no control measures are put into place, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in {A}lgeria is 2.1, the number of new cases in {A}lgeria will peak from around late {M}ay to early {J}une and up to 82% of the {A}lgerian population will likely contract the coronavirus. {I}n the second scenario, at a certain date{T}, drastic control measures are taken, people are being advised to self-isolate or to quarantine and will be able to leave their homes only if necessary. {W}e use {SEIR} model with fast change between fully protected and risky states. {W}e prove that the final size of the epidemic depends strongly on the cumulative number of cases at the date when we implement intervention and on the fraction of the population in confinement. {O}ur analysis shows that the longer we wait, the worse the situation will be and this very quickly produces.},
keywords = {{COVID}-19 ; {SEIR}compartmental model ; basic reproduction number ; time scales ; aggregation of variables ; {ALGERIE}},
booktitle = {},
journal = {{M}athematical {M}odelling of {N}atural {P}henomena},
volume = {15},
numero = {},
pages = {art. 37 [13p.]},
ISSN = {0973-5348},
year = {2020},
DOI = {10.1051/mmnp/2020028},
URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079421},
}