@article{fdi:010079330,
  title = {{T}wenty-first century ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and upper-ocean nutrient and primary production decline from {CMIP}6 model projections},
  author = {{K}wiatkowski, {L}. and {T}orres, {O}. and {B}opp, {L}. and {A}umont, {O}livier and {C}hamberlain, {M}. and {C}hristian, {J}. {R}. and {D}unne, {J}. {P}. and {G}ehlen, {M}. and {I}lyina, {T}. and {J}ohn, {J}. {G}. and {L}enton, {A}. and {L}i, {H}. {M}. and {L}ovenduski, {N}. {S}. and {O}rr, {J}. {C}. and {P}almieri, {J}. and {S}antana-{F}alcon, {Y}. and {S}chwinger, {J}. and {S}eferian, {R}. and {S}tock, {C}. {A}. and {T}agliabue, {A}. and {T}akano, {Y}. and {T}jiputra, {J}. and {T}oyama, {K}. and {T}sujino, {H}. and {W}atanabe, {M}. and {Y}amamoto, {A}. and {Y}ool, {A}. and {Z}iehn, {T}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}nthropogenic climate change is projected to lead to ocean warming, acidification, deoxygenation, reductions in near-surface nutrients, and changes to primary production, all of which are expected to affect marine ecosystems. {H}ere we assess projections of these drivers of environmental change over the twenty-first century from {E}arth system models ({ESM}s) participating in the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hase 6 ({CMIP}6) that were forced under the {CMIP}6 {S}hared {S}ocioeconomic {P}athways ({SSP}s). {P}rojections are compared to those from the previous generation ({CMIP}5) forced under the {R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athways ({RCP}s). {A} total of 10 {CMIP}5 and 13 {CMIP}6 models are used in the two multi-model ensembles. {U}nder the high-emission scenario {SSP}5-8.5, the multi-model global mean change (2080-2099 mean values relative to 1870-1899) +/- the inter-model {SD} in sea surface temperature, surface p{H}, subsurface (100-600 m) oxygen concentration, euphotic (0-100 m) nitrate concentration, and depth-integrated primary production is +3.47 +/- 0.78 degrees {C}, -0.44 +/- 0.005, -13:27 +/- 5.28, -1.06 +/- 0.45 mmol m(-3) and -2.99 +/- 9.11 %, respectively. {U}nder the low-emission, high-mitigation scenario {SSP}1-2.6, the corresponding global changes are +1.42 +/- 0.32 degrees {C}, -0.16 +/- 0.002, - 6.36 +/- 2.92, -0.52 +/- 0.23 mmol m(-)3, and -0.56 +/- 4.12 %. {P}rojected exposure of the marine ecosystem to these drivers of ocean change depends largely on the extent of future emissions, consistent with previous studies. {T}he {ESM}s in {CMIP}6 generally project greater warming, acidification, deoxygenation, and nitrate reductions but lesser primary production declines than those from {CMIP}5 under comparable radiative forcing. {T}he increased projected ocean warming results from a general increase in the climate sensitivity of {CMIP}6 models relative to those of {CMIP}5. {T}his enhanced warming increases upper-ocean stratification in {CMIP}6 projections, which contributes to greater reductions in upper-ocean nitrate and subsurface oxygen ventilation. {T}he greater surface acidification in {CMIP}6 is primarily a consequence of the {SSP}s having higher associated atmospheric {CO}2 concentrations than their {RCP} analogues for the same radiative forcing. {W}e find no consistent reduction in inter-model uncertainties, and even an increase in net primary production inter-model uncertainties in {CMIP}6, as compared to {CMIP}5.},
  keywords = {{MONDE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{B}iogeosciences},
  volume = {17},
  numero = {13},
  pages = {3439--3470},
  ISSN = {1726-4170},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.5194/bg-17-3439-2020},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010079330},
}