@article{fdi:010078764,
  title = {{A}ssessing the sensitivity of bivalve populations to global warming using an individual-based modelling approach},
  author = {{T}homas, {Y}oann and {B}acher, {C}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}limate change exposes benthic species populations in coastal ecosystems to a combination of different stressors (e.g., warming, acidification and eutrophication), threatening the sustainability of the ecological functions they provide. {T}hermal stress appears to be one of the strongest drivers impacting marine ecosystems, acting across a wide range of scales, from individual metabolic performances to geographic distribution of populations. {A}ccounting for and integrating the response of species functional traits to thermal stress is therefore a necessary step in predicting how populations will respond to the warming expected in coming decades. {H}ere, we developed an individual-based population model using a mechanistic formulation of metabolic processes within the framework of the dynamic energy budget theory. {T}hrough a large number of simulations, we assessed the sensitivity of population growth potential to thermal stress and food conditions based on a climate projection scenario ({R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athway; {RCP}8.5: no reduction of greenhouse gas emissions). {W}e focused on three bivalve species with contrasting thermal tolerance ranges and distinct distribution ranges along 5,000 km of coastline in the {NE} {A}tlantic: the {P}acific oyster ({M}agallana gigas), and two mussel species: {M}ytilus edulis and {M}ytilus galloprovincialis. {O}ur results suggest substantial and contrasting changes within species depending on local temperature and food concentration. {R}eproductive phenology appeared to be a core process driving the responses of the populations, and these patterns were closely related to species thermal tolerances. {T}he nonlinear relationship we found between individual life-history traits and response at the population level emphasizes the need to consider the interactions resulting from upscaling across different levels of biological organisation. {T}hese results underline the importance of a process-based understanding of benthic population response to seawater warming, which will be necessary for forward planning of resource management and strategies for conservation and adaptation to environmental changes.},
  keywords = {{EUROPE} ; {ATLANTIQUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}lobal {C}hange {B}iology},
  volume = {24},
  numero = {10},
  pages = {4581--4597},
  ISSN = {1354-1013},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.1111/gcb.14402},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010078764},
}