@inproceedings{fdi:010078480,
  title = {{D}emographic dividend, dependency ratio and {HIV}/{AIDS} in sub-{S}aharan {A}frica : theoretical approach and case studies : a report to the {U}nited {N}ations {F}und for {P}opulation {A}ctivities ({UNFPA})},
  author = {{G}arenne, {M}ichel},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he study describes changes in the dependency ratio ({P}opulation 0-14 and 65+/ {P}opulation 15-64) in sub-{S}aharan {A}frica since 1950 in an international context, its determinants (fertility, mortality,  migration)  and  possible  consequences  on  economic  growth  (the  demographic dividend).  {I}t  investigates  in  particular  the  effect  of  {HIV}/{AIDS}  and  {HAART}  on  the dependency  ratio.  {O}verall,  dependency  ratios  increased  in  {A}frica  from  1950  to  1985 following  mortality  decline  and  fertility  increase,  then  decreased  since  1985.  {HIV}/{AIDS} seems to have had only a marginal effect on dependency ratios. {A} simulation model indicates that mortality decline from 30 to 70 years of life expectancy could induce a 22% increase in the dependency ratio, a fertility decline from 7 to 2 children per woman could induce a 54% decline in the dependency ratio, and a very severe {HIV} epidemic with 25% of adults infected (45%  of  those  aged  15-49)  a  12%  increase,  which  could  be  almost  entirely  reversed  by {HAART}. {I}n 5 cases studies of countries with moderate to severe {HIV} epidemics, there was no convincing  evidence  of  any  effect  of  {HIV}  on  dependency  ratios.  {I}n  empirical  regression models, the effect of {HIV} on the dependency ratio was mild (+0.022 out of a baseline of 0.892) for an average 10% {HIV} prevalence, an effect consistent with that of the simulation model. {I}n regression models, the effect of dependency ratios on economic growth was mild and  negative  after  1980.  {A}ltogether,  the  {HIV}/{AIDS}  epidemic  did  not  seem  to  have  any marked effect on the age structure and on economic growth in {A}frica.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE} {SUBSAHARIENNE} ; {CHINE} ; {COREE} {DU} {SUD} ; {THAILANDE}},
  numero = {},
  pages = {37  multigr.},
  booktitle = {},
  year = {2015},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010078480},
}