@article{fdi:010078080,
  title = {{R}obust assessment of the time of emergence of precipitation change in {W}est {A}frica},
  author = {{G}aetani, {M}. and {J}anicot, {S}erge and {V}rac, {M}. and {F}amien, {A}. {M}. and {S}ultan, {B}enjamin},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he time of emergence ({TOE}) of climate change is defined as the time when a new climate state emerges from a prior one. {TOE} assessment is particularly relevant in {W}est {A}frica, a region highly threatened by climate change and urgently needing trustworthy climate predictions. {I}n this paper, the {TOE} of precipitation change in {W}est {A}frica is assessed for the first time, by analyzing 6 precipitation metrics (cumulated precipitation, number of wet and very wet days, onset and length of the rainy season) computed from the output of 29 state-of-the-art climate models. {I}n {W}est {S}ahel, climate conditions characterized by reduced occurrence of wet days are likely to emerge before 2036, leading to the possible emergence of a dryer climate in 2028-2052. {I}n {E}ast {S}ahel, a wetter precipitation regime characterized by increased occurrence of very wet days is likely to emerge before 2054. {R}esults do not provide a clear indication about a possible climate shift in the onset and length of the rainy season. {A}lthough uncertainty in climate model future projections still limits the robust determination of {TOE} locally, this study provides reliable time constraints to the expected climate shift in {W}est {A}frica at the sub-regional scale, supporting adaptation measures to the future change in the precipitation regime.},
  keywords = {{AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST} ; {SAHEL}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{S}cientific {R}eports - {N}ature},
  volume = {10},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {[10 ]},
  ISSN = {2045-2322},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.1038/s41598-020-63782-2},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010078080},
}