Mangiarotti Sylvain auteur aut IRD Peyre M. auteur aut IRD Zhang Y. auteur aut IRD Huc M. auteur aut IRD Roger F. auteur aut IRD Kerr Y. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access While predicting the course of an epidemic is difficult, predicting the course of a pandemic from an emerging virus is even more so. The validity of most predictive models relies on numerous parameters, involving biological and social characteristics often unknown or highly uncertain. Data of the COVID-19 epidemics in China, Japan, South Korea and Italy were used to build up deterministic models without strong assumptions. These models were then applied to other countries to identify the closest scenarios in order to foresee their coming behaviour. The models enabled to predict situations that were confirmed little by little, proving that these tools can be efficient and useful for decision making in a quickly evolving operational context. specialized Coronavirus epidemics infectious disease control mathematical modelling pandemic MONDE CHINE ITALIE COREE DU SUD JAPON EUROPE ETATS UNIS IRAN 052 050 020 148 art. e95 [9p.] 2020 0950-2688 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010078049 10.1017/s0950268820000990 0950-2688 [F B010078049] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010078049 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/divers20-06/010078049.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2020-07-02 2025-02-24 fdi:010078049 fre