@article{fdi:010078016,
  title = {{D}iffering marine animal biomass shifts under 21st century climate change between {C}anada's three oceans},
  author = {{B}ryndum-{B}uchholz, {A}. and {P}rentice, {F}. and {T}ittensor, {D}. {P}. and {B}lanchard, {J}. {L}. and {C}heung, {W}. {W}. {L}. and {C}hristensen, {V}. and {G}albraith, {E}. {D}. and {M}aury, {O}livier and {L}otze, {H}. {K}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{U}nder climate change, species composition and abundances in high-latitude waters are expected to substantially reconfigure with consequences for trophic relationships and ecosystem services. {O}utcomes are challenging to project at national scales, despite their importance for management decisions. {U}sing an ensemble of six global marine ecosystem models we analyzed marine ecosystem responses to climate change from 1971 to 2099 in {C}anada's {E}xclusive {E}conomic {Z}one ({EEZ}) under four standardized emissions scenarios. {B}y 2099, under business-as-usual emissions ({RCP}8.5) projected marine animal biomass declined by an average of -7.7% (+/- 29.5%) within the {C}anadian {EEZ}, dominated by declines in the {P}acific (-24% +/- 24.5%) and {A}tlantic (-25.5% +/- 9.5%) areas; these were partially compensated by increases in the {C}anadian {A}rctic (+26.2% +/- 38.4%). {L}ower emissions scenarios projected successively smaller biomass changes, highlighting the benefits of stronger mitigation targets. {I}ndividual model projections were most consistent in the {A}tlantic and {P}acific, but highly variable in the {A}rctic due to model uncertainties in polar regions. {D}ifferent trajectories of future marine biomass changes will require regional-specific responses in conservation and management strategies, such as adaptive planning of marine protected areas and species-specific management plans, to enhance resilience and rebuilding of {C}anada's marine ecosystems and commercial fish stocks.},
  keywords = {climate change ; ensemble modeling ; marine ecosystem models ; {C}anada ; {E}xclusive {E}conomic {Z}one ; {F}ish-{MIP} ; projection uncertainty ; {CANADA} ; {PACIFIQUE} ; {ATLANTIQUE} ; {ARCTIQUE} {OCEAN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{F}acets},
  volume = {5},
  numero = {},
  pages = {105--122},
  ISSN = {2371-1671},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.1139/facets-2019-0035},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010078016},
}