Yepes H. auteur aut IRD Nocquet Jean-Mathieu auteur aut IRD Bernard B. auteur aut IRD Palacios P. B. auteur aut IRD Vaca S. auteur aut IRD Aguaiza S. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access In the paper entitled "Two independent real-time precursors of the 7.8 M earthquake in Ecuador based on radioactive and geodetic processes - Powerful tools for an early warning system", Toulkeridis et al. (2019) claim that they found radiation and GPS signal anomalies before the April 16th 2016 Pedernales earthquake (Ecuador) and that their findings can be used to forecast earthquakes in the medium and short term in active continental margins. Using an extended data set that overlaps Toulkeridis et al. (2019) study period, we find: (1) the success rate of predicting earthquakes using radiation anomalies is 2.5 %; (2) radiation anomalies, including the one recorded during the hours before the M 7.8 earthquake, temporally correlate with local rainfall; (3) Toulkeridis et al. (2019) GPS results are physically unrealistic and inconsistent with previously published GPS and InSAR analysis; (4) there is no anomaly in the GPS time series before the earthquake. Therefore, Toulkeridis et al. (2019) results are not reliable evidence of precursors to the M 7.8 earthquake in 2016 in Ecuador, and their proposed method cannot be used to forecast earthquakes. specialized Earthquake precursor Radiation GPS Forecast Early warning EQUATEUR 066 133 art. 101648 [6 ] 2020 0264-3707 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010077870 10.1016/j.jog.2019.101648 0264-3707 [F B010077870] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010077870 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2020/02/010077870.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2020-03-11 2025-02-24 fdi:010077870 fre