@article{fdi:010077765,
  title = {{P}rospective study on chronic diseases and healthcare costs for the south of {F}rance region, 2016-2028},
  author = {{D}avin, {B}. and {C}ortaredona, {S}{\'e}bastien and {G}uagliardo, {V}. and {N}auleau, {S}. and {V}entelou, {B}. and {V}erger, {P}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{B}ackground: {I}n {F}rance, {H}ealth {R}egional {A}gencies ({HRA}) have to elaborate a {P}ublic {H}ealth {P}lan for the 5 coming years. {F}or estimating future population health needs and associated costs to adapt the health services on the regional territory, the {HRA} in southeastern {F}rance requested a prospective analysis, based on demographic and epidemiologic scenarios about major chronic diseases, to evaluate future trends. {M}ethods: {S}ix chronic diseases were selected: diabetes (1 or 2), cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, cancers, neurological diseases and dementia. {W}e used medico-administrative data from the {N}ational health insurance fund, and adapted algorithms to identify people with these diseases. {W}e calculated prevalence rates according to gender and age and used two alternative scenarios (a constant one, and a trend-based one) to estimate the number of people with chronic diseases in 2023 and 2028, starting in 2016. {W}e also estimated future healthcare costs according a constant and a trend-based scenario. {R}esults: {T}he algorithms detect reasonable rates of disease compared to official rates available for 2016. {D}ue to demographic (ageing) and/or epidemiologic trends, the number of people with chronic diseases will highly increase during the next ten years in the {S}outh of {F}rance region. {F}or instance, between 2016 and 2028, there will be from 15% to 20% more people with diabetes. {A}ssociated costs will also be higher (+33% between 2016 and 2028), especially those granted to nursing care (+40%). {C}onclusions: {B}urden of diseases and health expenditures are going to increase in the future. {P}rojections are needed to help policymakers anticipating the required health services adaptation. {M}edico-administrative database are an invaluable source of data to do so. {T}he next step of this project will consist in estimating those trends for smaller geographical areas.},
  keywords = {{FRANCE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{E}uropean {J}ournal of {P}ublic {H}ealth},
  volume = {29},
  numero = {{S}uppl. 4},
  pages = {16--17},
  ISSN = {1101-1262},
  year = {2019},
  DOI = {10.1093/eurpub/ckz185.029},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010077765},
}