@article{fdi:010077490,
  title = {{N}ear-term impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems in {W}est and {C}entral {A}frica},
  author = {{S}idibe, {M}. and {D}ieppois, {B}. and {E}den, {J}. and {M}ah{\'e}, {G}il and {P}aturel, {J}ean-{E}mmanuel and {A}moussou, {E}. and {A}nifowose, {B}. and {V}an {D}e {W}iel, {M}. and {L}awler, {D}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}limate change is expected to significantly impact on the availability of water resources in {W}est and {C}entral {A}frica through changes in rainfall, temperature and evapotranspiration. {U}nderstanding these changes in this region, where surface water is fundamental for economic activity and ecosystem services, is of paramount importance. {I}n this study, we examine the potential impacts of climate variability and change on hydrological systems by the mid-21st century in {W}est and {C}entral {A}frica, as well as the uncertainties in the different climate-impact modelling pathways. {S}imulations from nine global climate models downscaled using the {R}ossby {C}entre {R}egional {C}limate model ({RCA}4) are evaluated and subsequently bias-corrected using a nonparametric trend-preserving quantile mapping approach. {W}e then use two conceptual hydrological models ({GR}2{M} and {IHACRES}), and a regression-based model built upon multi-timescale sea surface temperatures and streamflow teleconnections, to understand hydrological processes at the subcontinental scale and provide hydrological predictions for the near-term future (2020-2050) under the {RCP}4.5 emission scenario. {T}he results highlight a zonal contrast in future precipitation between western (dry) and eastern (wet) {S}ahel, and a robust signal in rising temperature, suggesting an increase in potential evapotranspiration, across the multi-model ensemble. {O}verall, across the region, a significant increase in discharge (similar to + 5%) is expected by the mid-21st century, albeit with high uncertainties reported over most of {C}entral {E}quatorial {A}frica inherent to climate models and gridded observation data quality. {I}nterestingly, in this region, teleconnections-based regression models tend to be an alternative to hydrological models.},
  keywords = {{C}limate change ; {H}ydroclimatic variability ; {R}ainfall-runoff modelling ; {S}treamflow projections ; {RCP}4.5 scenario ; {W}est and {C}entral {A}frica ; {AFRIQUE} {CENTRALE} ; {AFRIQUE} {DE} {L}'{OUEST}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {54},
  numero = {3-4},
  pages = {2041--2070},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-019-05102-7},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010077490},
}