@article{fdi:010077304,
  title = {{A}liasing of the {I}ndian {O}cean externally-forced warming spatial pattern by internal climate variability},
  author = {{G}opika, {S}. and {I}zumo, {T}akeshi and {V}ialard, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {L}engaigne, {M}atthieu and {S}uresh, {I}. and {K}umar, {M}.{R}.{R}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject ({CMIP}5) models project an inhomogeneous anthropogenic surface warming of the {I}ndian {O}cean by the end of the 21st century, with strongest warming in the {A}rabian {S}ea and {W}estern equatorial {I}ndian {O}cean. {P}revious studies have warned that this "{I}ndian {O}cean {D}ipole ({IOD})-like" warming pattern could yield more {A}rabian {S}ea cyclones, more extreme {IOD} events and decrease monsoonal rains. {H}ere we show that {CMIP}5 models also produce an "{IOD}-like" pattern over the 1871-2016 period, in broad agreement with observations. {S}ingle-models ensemble simulations however indicate a strong aliasing of the warming pattern "signal" by the internal climate variability "noise" over that period. {W}hile the average {I}ndian {O}cean warming emerges around 1950 in {CMIP}5 and observations, regional contrasts are more difficult to detect. {T}he only detectable signal by 2016 in {CMIP}5 is a stronger {A}rabian {S}ea than {B}ay of {B}engal warming in > 80% of the models, which is not detected in {H}ad{SST}3 observations. {C}onversely, observations already detect a stronger {N}orthern than {S}outhern {I}ndian ocean warming, while this signal only emerges by similar to 2060 in > 80% of the models. {S}ubsampling observations to only retain the most accurate values however indicate that this observed signal most likely results from sampling issues in the {S}outhern hemisphere. {I}n light of this large aliasing by internal climate variability and observational uncertainties, the broad agreement between {CMIP}5 and observations over 1871-2016 may be largely coincidental. {O}verall, these results call for extreme caution when interpreting spatial patterns of anthropogenic surface warming.},
  keywords = {{I}ndian {O}cean ; {A}nthropogenic climate change ; {N}atural climate variability ; {S}ea surface temperature ({SST}) ; {C}oupled model intercomparison project ({CMIP}) ; {S}patial pattern of {I}ndian {O}cean {SST} change ; {OCEAN} {INDIEN}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{C}limate {D}ynamics},
  volume = {54},
  numero = {1-2},
  pages = {1093--1111},
  ISSN = {0930-7575},
  year = {2020},
  DOI = {10.1007/s00382-019-05049-9},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010077304},
}