Sylla A. auteur aut IRD Mignot Juliette auteur aut IRD Capet Xavier auteur aut IRD Gaye A. T. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access Upwelling processes bring nutrient-rich waters from the deep ocean to the surface. Areas of upwelling are often associated with high productivity, offering great economic value in terms of fisheries. The sensitivity of spring/summer-time coastal upwelling systems to climate change has recently received a lot of attention. Several studies have suggested that their intensity may increase in the future while other authors have shown decreasing intensity in their equatorward portions. Yet, recent observations do not show robust evidence of this intensification. The Senegalo-Mauritanian upwelling system (SMUS) located at the southern edge of the north Atlantic system (12 degrees N-20 degrees N) and most active in winter/spring has been largely excluded from these studies. Here, the seasonal cycle of the SMUS and its response to climate change is investigated in the database of the Coupled Models Inter comparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Upwelling magnitude and surface signature are characterized by several sea surface temperature and wind stress indices. We highlight the ability of the climate models to reproduce the system, as well as their biases. The simulations suggest that the intensity of the SMUS winter/spring upwelling will moderately decrease in the future, primarily because of a reduction of the wind forcing linked to a northward shift of Azores anticyclone and a more regional modulation of the low pressures found over Northwest Africa. The implications of such an upwelling reduction on the ecosystems and local communities exploiting them remains very uncertain. specialized Upwelling Climate change Climate models Northeastern tropical Atlantic ATLANTIQUE SENEGAL MAURITANIE 032 021 020 53 7-8 4447-4473 2019 0930-7575 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010077136 10.1007/s00382-019-04797-y 0930-7575 [F B010077136] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010077136 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2019/11/010077136.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2019-12-12 2025-02-24 fdi:010077136 fre