@article{fdi:010076605,
  title = {{C}haos theory applied to the modelling of karst springs : first results from univariate time series},
  author = {{M}angiarotti, {S}ylvain and {Z}hang, {Y}. and {L}eblanc, {M}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he hydrological dynamics of karstic systems are generally highly nonlinear and weakly predictable. {T}his paper introduces, for the first time, a hydrological modelling approach based on chaos theory. {A}lthough this modelling approach may be extended to multi-variables, as a first step in exploring its applicability, the focus is on the simple case of single-variable modelling for karst springs, which in practice corresponds to basins where rainfall is ungauged or poorly constrained. {C}haos modelling is applied to the discharge of two karstic springs, the {D}oubs and the {L}ez springs in {F}rance, selected because they represent very different geological settings, climatic conditions, anthropogenic forcings and discharge dynamics. {A} deterministic model of autonomous ordinary differential equations is obtained for each spring. {T}he models have chaotic behavior in both cases. {T}he forecasting skills of these chaotic models are assessed. {F}orecasting performance estimates suggest that, under real conditions, forecasting could be performed for time horizons of similar to 16 h for {D}oubs and similar to 19 h for {L}ez (+/- 1,000 {L}/s, 95% of confidence). {T}his analysis offers new evidence for chaos in hydrogeology: the dynamic of discharge of karst springs is both deterministic and highly sensitive to the initial conditions, and it can be approximated by low-dimensional models.},
  keywords = {{E}mpirical modelling ; {T}ime series ; {K}arst ; {S}pring discharge ; {N}onlinear dynamical systems ; {FRANCE} ; {DOUBS} {COURS} {D}'{EAU} ; {LEZ} {COURS} {D}'{EAU}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{H}ydrogeology {J}ournal},
  volume = {27},
  numero = {6},
  pages = {2027--2043},
  ISSN = {1431-2174},
  year = {2019},
  DOI = {10.1007/s10040-019-01971-8},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010076605},
}