@article{fdi:010076174,
  title = {{SST} indexes in the tropical south atlantic for forecasting rainy seasons in northeast {B}razil},
  author = {{H}ounsou-{G}bo, {G}. {A}. and {S}ervain, {J}acques and {A}raujo, {M}. and {C}aniaux, {G}. and {B}ourl{\`e}s, {B}ernard and {F}ontenele, {D}. and {M}artins, {E}spr},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{M}ay-to-{J}uly and {F}ebruary-to-{A}pril represent peak rainy seasons in two sub-regions of {N}ortheast {B}razil ({NEB}): {E}astern {NEB} and {N}orthern {NEB} respectively. {I}n this paper, we identify key oceanic indexes in the tropical {S}outh {A}tlantic for driving these two rainy seasons. {I}n {E}astern {NEB}, the {M}ay-to-{J}uly rainfall anomalies present a positive relationship with the previous boreal winter sea surface temperature anomalies ({SSTA}) in the southeast tropical {A}tlantic (20 degrees-10 degrees {S}; 10 degrees {W}-5 degrees {E}). {T}his positive relationship, which spread westward along the southern branch of the {S}outh {E}quatorial {C}urrent, is associated with northwesterly surface wind anomalies. {A} warmer sea surface temperature in the southwestern {A}tlantic warm pool increases the moisture flux convergence, as well as its ascending motion and, hence, the rainfall along the adjacent coastal region. {F}or the {N}orthern {NEB}, another positive relationship is observed between the {F}ebruary-to-{A}pril rainfall anomalies and the {SSTA} of the previous boreal summer in the {A}tlantic {N}ino region (3 degrees {S}-3 degrees {N}; 20 degrees {W}-0 degrees). {T}he negative remote relationship noticeable between the {N}orthern {NEB} rainfall and the concomitant {P}acific {N}ino/{N}ina follows cold/warm events occurring during the previous boreal summer in the eastern equatorial {A}tlantic. {T}he southeastern tropical {A}tlantic and {A}tlantic {N}ino {SSTA} indexes may, then, be useful to predict seasonal rainfall over the {E}astern and {N}orthern {NEB}, respectively, for about a 6 month leading period. {T}he ability of both southeastern tropical {A}tlantic and {A}tlantic {N}ino {SSTA} indexes to forecast the {E}astern and {N}orthern {NEB} rainfall, with about a 6 month lead time, is improved when these indexes are respectively combined with the {N}ino3 (5 degrees {S}-5 degrees {N}; 150 degrees-90 degrees {W}) and the northeast subtropical {A}tlantic (20 degrees {N}-35 degrees {N}, 45 degrees {W}-20 degrees {W}), mainly from the 1970's climate shift.},
  keywords = {{B}razilian {N}ortheast ; rainfall ; predictability ; tropical {A}tlantic ; {BRESIL} ; {ATLANTIQUE} ; {ZONE} {TROPICALE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{A}tmosphere},
  volume = {10},
  numero = {6},
  pages = {335 [21 ]},
  ISSN = {2073-4433},
  year = {2019},
  DOI = {10.3390/atmos10060335},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010076174},
}