@article{fdi:010076156,
  title = {{G}lobal ensemble projections reveal trophic amplification of ocean biomass declines with climate change},
  author = {{L}otze, {H}. {K}. and {T}ittensor, {D}. {P}. and {B}ryndum-{B}uchholz, {A}. and {E}ddy, {T}. {D}. and {C}heung, {W}. {W}. {L}. and {G}albraith, {E}. {D}. and {B}arange, {M}. and {B}arrier, {N}icolas and {B}ianchi, {D}. and {B}lanchard, {J}. {L}. and {B}opp, {L}. and {B}uchner, {M}. and {B}ulman, {C}. {M}. and {C}arozza, {D}. {A}. and {C}hristensen, {V}. and {C}oll, {M}arta and {D}unne, {J}. {P}. and {F}ulton, {E}. {A}. and {J}ennings, {S}. and {J}ones, {M}. {C}. and {M}ackinson, {S}. and {M}aury, {O}livier and {N}iiranen, {S}. and {O}liveros-{R}amos, {R}. and {R}oy, {T}. and {F}ernandes, {J}. {A}. and {S}chewe, {J}. and {S}hin, {Y}unne-{J}ai and {S}ilva, {T}. {A}. {M}. and {S}teenbeek, {J}. and {S}tock, {C}. {A}. and {V}erley, {P}hilippe and {V}olkholz, {J}. and {W}alker, {N}. {D}. and {W}orm, {B}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{W}hile the physical dimensions of climate change are now routinely assessed through multimodel intercomparisons, projected impacts on the global ocean ecosystem generally rely on individual models with a specific set of assumptions. {T}o address these single-model limitations, we present standardized ensemble projections from six global marine ecosystem models forced with two {E}arth system models and four emission scenarios with and without fishing. {W}e derive average biomass trends and associated uncertainties across the marine food web. {W}ithout fishing, mean global animal biomass decreased by 5% (+/- 4% {SD}) under low emissions and 17% (+/- 11% {SD}) under high emissions by 2100, with an average 5% decline for every 1 degrees {C} of warming. {P}rojected biomass declines were primarily driven by increasing temperature and decreasing primary production, and were more pronounced at higher trophic levels, a process known as trophic amplification. {F}ishing did not substantially alter the effects of climate change. {C}onsiderable regional variation featured strong biomass increases at high latitudes and decreases at middle to low latitudes, with good model agreement on the direction of change but variable magnitude. {U}ncertainties due to variations in marine ecosystem and {E}arth system models were similar. {E}nsemble projections performed well compared with empirical data, emphasizing the benefits of multimodel inference to project future outcomes. {O}ur results indicate that global ocean animal biomass consistently declines with climate change, and that these impacts are amplified at higher trophic levels. {N}ext steps for model development include dynamic scenarios of fishing, cumulative human impacts, and the effects of management measures on future ocean biomass trends.},
  keywords = {climate change impacts ; marine food webs ; global ecosystem modeling ; model intercomparison ; uncertainty},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}roceedings of the {N}ational {A}cademy of {S}ciences of the {U}nited {S}tates of {A}merica},
  volume = {116},
  numero = {26},
  pages = {12907--12912},
  ISSN = {0027-8424},
  year = {2019},
  DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1900194116},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010076156},
}