Mangeas Morgan auteur aut IRD Andre J. auteur aut IRD Gomez C. auteur aut IRD Despinoy Marc auteur aut IRD Wattele G. auteur aut IRD Touraivane T. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access In this study, we present a spatially explicit bayesian model which is able to predict the distribution of potential fire ignition at a grid resolution of over the entire main island of New-Caledonia. This statistical model, when used in conjunction with a mechanistic fire model (FlamMap), is able to estimate the comparative and spatialized risk of fire impact on specific areas for specific issues such as biodiversity or erosion. The input data includes variables related to the physical environment such as the topography, climate, and some geographical indicators relating to human influences such as population density and type of land property. [GRAPHICS] Flowchart computation for the specific cell i. The grey rectangles denote the input data, the trapezoids denote the intermediate indices and the rounded corners rectangles denote the integrated wildfire risk indices. The connection legends indicates the corresponding equations and below certain nodes a drawing describes an example related to the main variables and the associated area used. specialized Fire risk modelling Bayesian network integrated modelling spatially explicit model decision making tool NOUVELLE CALEDONIE 082 126 020 34 1 37-52 2019 1744-5760 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010076057 10.1080/17445760.2018.1430799 1744-5760 [F B010076057] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010076057 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2019/06/010076057.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2019-07-05 2025-02-24 fdi:010076057 fre