Sirakov N. auteur aut IRD Fontez B. auteur aut IRD Libourel T. auteur aut IRD Santos A. dos auteur aut IRD Mitja Danielle auteur aut IRD Loisel P. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access The babassu palm tree (Attalea speciosa Mart. ex Spreng.) is an endemic species of Amazon forests, and has social and economical impact/utility. Deforestation highlights this palm tree in anthropogenic open areas (pastures and cultivated fields). Simultaneously, knowledge concerning the sustainable functioning of the species within these manmade environments is sorely lacking: its life cycle is not well known, and its population dynamics remains unstudied. In this study, our objective was to generate a model of the population dynamics of the babassu palm tree, validated by in situ analysis, to understand how babassu, a forest species, adapts to pastureland and, under certain conditions, becomes invasive. We propose a random matrix model with aggregated variables based on the biological stages of the species as the input. The probabilities of the between-stage transition matrix were modelled using a Dirichlet-multinomial model with a hierarchy taking geographical organization, i.e. transect level, into account. The integration of prior information was formulated through a Bayesian approach. This Bayesian hierarchical matrix model enabled us to demonstrate a bottleneck in the population dynamics and a high year-dependent mortality rate at an early stage. specialized Mathematical modelling Bayesian statistics Population dynamics Babassu palm tree BRESIL AMAZONIE 082 076 020 400 14-26 2019 0304-3800 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010075669 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.02.016 0304-3800 [F B010075669] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010075669 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2019/05/010075669.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2019-06-04 2025-02-24 fdi:010075669 fre