Horizon 1 1 17 ACL : Articles dans des revues avec comité de lecture répertoriées par l'AERES Ecological Modelling 14-26 Mathematical modelling Bayesian statistics Population dynamics Babassu palm tree BRESIL AMAZONIE PARA 2019 fdi:010075669 ENG Ecological Modelling 0304-3800 ISI:000466622100002 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2019.02.016 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010075669 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2019/05/010075669.pdf 400 Horizon (IRD) The babassu palm tree (Attalea speciosa Mart. ex Spreng.) is an endemic species of Amazon forests, and has social and economical impact/utility. Deforestation highlights this palm tree in anthropogenic open areas (pastures and cultivated fields). Simultaneously, knowledge concerning the sustainable functioning of the species within these manmade environments is sorely lacking: its life cycle is not well known, and its population dynamics remains unstudied. In this study, our objective was to generate a model of the population dynamics of the babassu palm tree, validated by in situ analysis, to understand how babassu, a forest species, adapts to pastureland and, under certain conditions, becomes invasive. We propose a random matrix model with aggregated variables based on the biological stages of the species as the input. The probabilities of the between-stage transition matrix were modelled using a Dirichlet-multinomial model with a hierarchy taking geographical organization, i.e. transect level, into account. The integration of prior information was formulated through a Bayesian approach. This Bayesian hierarchical matrix model enabled us to demonstrate a bottleneck in the population dynamics and a high year-dependent mortality rate at an early stage. 082 ; 076 ; 020 UR228 Brésil