A stage-structured hierarchical Bayes model for the babassu palm tree population dynamics : estimated from anthropogenic open area data sets Sirakov, N. Fontez, B. Libourel, T. Santos, A. dos /Mitja, Danielle Loisel, P. Mathematical modelling Bayesian statistics Population dynamics Babassu palm tree The babassu palm tree (Attalea speciosa Mart. ex Spreng.) is an endemic species of Amazon forests, and has social and economical impact/utility. Deforestation highlights this palm tree in anthropogenic open areas (pastures and cultivated fields). Simultaneously, knowledge concerning the sustainable functioning of the species within these manmade environments is sorely lacking: its life cycle is not well known, and its population dynamics remains unstudied. In this study, our objective was to generate a model of the population dynamics of the babassu palm tree, validated by in situ analysis, to understand how babassu, a forest species, adapts to pastureland and, under certain conditions, becomes invasive. We propose a random matrix model with aggregated variables based on the biological stages of the species as the input. The probabilities of the between-stage transition matrix were modelled using a Dirichlet-multinomial model with a hierarchy taking geographical organization, i.e. transect level, into account. The integration of prior information was formulated through a Bayesian approach. This Bayesian hierarchical matrix model enabled us to demonstrate a bottleneck in the population dynamics and a high year-dependent mortality rate at an early stage. 2019 text https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010075669 fdi:010075669 Sirakov N., Fontez B., Libourel T., Santos A. dos, Mitja Danielle, Loisel P.. A stage-structured hierarchical Bayes model for the babassu palm tree population dynamics : estimated from anthropogenic open area data sets. 2019, 400, 14-26 EN BRESIL AMAZONIE