@article{fdi:010075562,
  title = {{E}xtreme {ENSO}-driven torrential rainfalls at the southern edge of the {A}tacama {D}esert during the {L}ate {H}olocene and their projection into the 21th century},
  author = {{O}rtega, {C}. and {V}argas, {G}. and {R}ojas, {M}. and {R}utllant, {J}. {A}. and {M}unoz, {P}. and {L}ange, {C}. {B}. and {P}antoja, {S}. and {D}ezileau, {L}. and {O}rtlieb, {L}uc},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{E}xtreme precipitation events and multi-annual droughts, especially in arid to semi-arid subtropical regions, are among the most critical {E}l {N}ino {S}outhern {O}scillation ({ENSO}) and global climate change impacts. {H}ere, we assess the variability of torrential rainfall during the {L}ate {H}olocene and its projection into the 21st century at the southern edge of the hyperarid {A}tacama {D}esert. {T}he analysis of historical data since the beginning of the 20th century reveals that most (76.5%) alluvial disasters in the southern {A}tacama {D}esert (26-30 degrees {S}) have resulted from extreme rainfall events occurring between {M}arch and {S}eptember under {E}l {N}ino conditions, and more frequently during the warm phase of the {P}acific {D}ecadal {O}scillation. {P}articular rainfall events under these ocean-climate conditions are associated with the convective phase of the {M}adden-{J}ulian {O}scillation ({MJO}) near the central-equatorial {P}acific, resulting in warmer sea surface temperature ({SST}) there and in the triggering of persistent/intense {P}acific {S}outh {A}merica ({PSA}) tropical-extratropical teleconnection patterns which result in blocking of the westerly flow at high latitudes and the subsequent deviation of storm tracks towards central-northern {C}hile. {O}n a longer timescale, marine sediments from {T}ongoy {B}ay (30 degrees {S}) reveal an increasing trend of stronger runoff by torrential coastal rain since ca. 3500 cal yr {BP} and even stronger heavy rainfall since ca. 1700 cal yr {BP}. {H}ighly variable coastal sea surface temperatures in the same time span deduced from the sedimentary record can be explained by intensified southerly winds in connection with stronger alongshore pressure gradients and reduced coastal low-cloud cover. {B}oth storm intensification and increased intensity of upwelling-favorable winds point to a variable climate conditioned by strengthened interannual {ENSO} and interdecadal {ENSO}-like variability during the {L}ate {H}olocene. {C}limate projections from the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hase 5 ({CMIP}5) indicate a reduction in annual precipitation of 15-30% during the current century, together with an intensification of the storms, such as the alluvial disaster on {M}arch 25, 2015 in {A}tacama.},
  keywords = {{E}xtreme rainfall events ; {S}outhern edge of {A}tacama {D}esert ; {E}l {N}ino ; {S}outhern {O}scillation ; {P}acific {S}outh {A}merica teleconnection pattern ; {P}acific {D}ecadal {O}scillation ; {CMIP}5 ; {CHILI} ; {ATACAMA} {DESERT} ; {PACIFIQUE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}lobal and {P}lanetary {C}hange},
  volume = {175},
  numero = {},
  pages = {226--237},
  ISSN = {0921-8181},
  year = {2019},
  DOI = {10.1016/j.gloplacha.2019.02.011},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010075562},
}