@article{fdi:010074789,
  title = {{C}onsistent trophic amplification of marine biomass declines under climate change},
  author = {{K}wiatkowski, {L}. and {A}umont, {O}livier and {B}opp, {L}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{T}he impact of climate change on the marine food web is highly uncertain. {N}onetheless, there is growing consensus that global marine primary production will decline in response to future climate change, largely due to increased stratification reducing the supply of nutrients to the upper ocean. {E}vidence to date suggests a potential amplification of this response throughout the trophic food web, with more dramatic responses at higher trophic levels. {H}ere we show that trophic amplification of marine biomass declines is a consistent feature of the {C}oupled {M}odel {I}ntercomparison {P}roject {P}hase 5 ({CMIP}5) {E}arth {S}ystem {M}odels, across different scenarios of future climate change. {U}nder the business-as-usual {R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athway 8.5 ({RCP}8.5) global mean phytoplankton biomass is projected to decline by 6.1% +/- 2.5% over the twenty-first century, while zooplankton biomass declines by 13.6% +/- 3.0%. {A}ll models project greater relative declines in zooplankton than phytoplankton, with annual zooplankton biomass anomalies 2.24 +/- 1.03 times those of phytoplankton. {T}he low latitude oceans drive the projected trophic amplification of biomass declines, with models exhibiting variable trophic interactions in the mid-to-high latitudes and similar relative changes in phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass. {U}nder the assumption that zooplankton biomass is prey limited, an analytical explanation of the trophic amplification that occurs in the low latitudes can be derived from generic plankton differential equations. {U}sing an ocean biogeochemical model, we show that the inclusion of variable {C}:{N}:{P} phytoplankton stoichiometry can substantially increase the trophic amplification of biomass declines in low latitude regions. {T}his additional trophic amplification is driven by enhanced nutrient limitation decreasing phytoplankton {N} and {P} content relative to {C}, hence reducing zooplankton growth efficiency. {G}iven that most current {E}arth {S}ystem {M}odels assume that phytoplankton {C}:{N}:{P} stoichiometry is constant, such models are likely to underestimate the extent of negative trophic amplification under projected climate change.},
  keywords = {climate change ; food quality ; marine primary production ; plankton ; stoichiometry ; trophic amplification},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{G}lobal {C}hange {B}iology},
  volume = {25},
  numero = {1},
  pages = {218--229},
  ISSN = {1354-1013},
  year = {2019},
  DOI = {10.1111/gcb.14468},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010074789},
}