Lai S. J. auteur aut IRD Johansson M. A. auteur aut IRD Yin W. W. auteur aut IRD Wardrop N. A. auteur aut IRD van Panhuis W. G. auteur aut IRD Wesolowski A. auteur aut IRD Kraemer M. U. G. auteur aut IRD Bogoch,, II auteur aut IRD Kain D. auteur aut IRD Findlater A. auteur aut IRD Choisy Marc auteur aut IRD Huang Z. J. auteur aut IRD Mu D. auteur aut IRD Li Y. auteur aut IRD He Y. N. auteur aut IRD Chen Q. L. auteur aut IRD Yang J. auteur aut IRD Khan K. auteur aut IRD Tatem A. J. auteur aut IRD Yu H. J. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access Due to worldwide increased human mobility, air-transportation data and mathematical models have been widely used to measure risks of global dispersal of pathogens. However, the seasonal and interannual risks of pathogens importation and onward transmission from endemic countries have rarely been quantified and validated. We constructed a modelling framework, integrating air travel, epidemiological, demographical, entomological and meteorological data, to measure the seasonal probability of dengue introduction from endemic countries. This framework has been applied retrospectively to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns and increasing seasonal risk of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China via air travel in multiple populations, Chinese travelers and local residents, over a decade of 2005-15. We found that the volume of airline travelers from South-East Asia into China has quadrupled from 2005 to 2015 with Chinese travelers increased rapidly. Following the growth of air traffic, the probability of dengue importation from South-East Asia into China has increased dramatically from 2005 to 2015. This study also revealed seasonal asymmetries of transmission routes: Sri Lanka and Maldives have emerged as origins; neglected cities at central and coastal China have been increasingly vulnerable to dengue importation and onward transmission. Compared to the monthly occurrence of dengue reported in China, our model performed robustly for importation and onward transmission risk estimates. The approach and evidence could facilitate to understand and mitigate the changing seasonal threat of arbovirus from endemic regions. specialized CAMBODGE, LAOS, MALAISIE MALDIVES PHILIPPINES SINGAPOUR SRI LANKA THAILANDE VIET NAM CHINE 052 12 11 e0006743 [16 p.] 2018 1935-2735 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010074762 10.1371/journal.pntd.0006743 1935-2735 [F B010074762] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010074762 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/divers18-12/010074762.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2019-01-10 2023-07-11 fdi:010074762 fre