@article{fdi:010074762,
  title = {{S}easonal and interannual risks of dengue introduction from {S}outh-{E}ast {A}sia into {C}hina, 2005-2015},
  author = {{L}ai, {S}. {J}. and {J}ohansson, {M}. {A}. and {Y}in, {W}. {W}. and {W}ardrop, {N}. {A}. and van {P}anhuis, {W}. {G}. and {W}esolowski, {A}. and {K}raemer, {M}. {U}. {G}. and {B}ogoch,, {II} and {K}ain, {D}. and {F}indlater, {A}. and {C}hoisy, {M}arc and {H}uang, {Z}. {J}. and {M}u, {D}. and {L}i, {Y}. and {H}e, {Y}. {N}. and {C}hen, {Q}. {L}. and {Y}ang, {J}. and {K}han, {K}. and {T}atem, {A}. {J}. and {Y}u, {H}. {J}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{D}ue to worldwide increased human mobility, air-transportation data and mathematical models have been widely used to measure risks of global dispersal of pathogens. {H}owever, the seasonal and interannual risks of pathogens importation and onward transmission from endemic countries have rarely been quantified and validated. {W}e constructed a modelling framework, integrating air travel, epidemiological, demographical, entomological and meteorological data, to measure the seasonal probability of dengue introduction from endemic countries. {T}his framework has been applied retrospectively to elucidate spatiotemporal patterns and increasing seasonal risk of dengue importation from {S}outh-{E}ast {A}sia into {C}hina via air travel in multiple populations, {C}hinese travelers and local residents, over a decade of 2005-15. {W}e found that the volume of airline travelers from {S}outh-{E}ast {A}sia into {C}hina has quadrupled from 2005 to 2015 with {C}hinese travelers increased rapidly. {F}ollowing the growth of air traffic, the probability of dengue importation from {S}outh-{E}ast {A}sia into {C}hina has increased dramatically from 2005 to 2015. {T}his study also revealed seasonal asymmetries of transmission routes: {S}ri {L}anka and {M}aldives have emerged as origins; neglected cities at central and coastal {C}hina have been increasingly vulnerable to dengue importation and onward transmission. {C}ompared to the monthly occurrence of dengue reported in {C}hina, our model performed robustly for importation and onward transmission risk estimates. {T}he approach and evidence could facilitate to understand and mitigate the changing seasonal threat of arbovirus from endemic regions.},
  keywords = {{CAMBODGE}, {LAOS}, {MALAISIE} ; {MALDIVES} ; {PHILIPPINES} ; {SINGAPOUR} ; {SRI} {LANKA} ; {THAILANDE} ; {VIET} {NAM} ; {CHINE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{PL}o{S} {N}eglected {T}ropical {D}iseases},
  volume = {12},
  numero = {11},
  pages = {e0006743 [16 p.]},
  ISSN = {1935-2735},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.1371/journal.pntd.0006743},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010074762},
}