Parkes B. auteur aut IRD Sultan Benjamin auteur aut IRD Ciais P. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access Maize (Zea mays) is one of the staple crops of West Africa and is therefore of high importance with regard to future food security. The ability of West Africa to produce enough food is critical as the population is expected to increase well into the twenty-first century. In this study, a process-based crop model is used to project maize yields in Africa for global temperatures 2 K and 4 K above the preindustrial control. This study investigates how yields and crop failure rates are influenced by climate change and the efficacy of adaptation methods to mitigate the effects of climate change. To account for the uncertainties in future climate projections, multiple model runs have been performed at specific warming levels of +2 K and +4 K to give a better estimate of future crop yields. Under a warming of +2 K, the maize yield is projected to reduce by 5.9% with an increase in both mild and severe crop failure rates. Mild and severe crop failures are yields 1 and 1.5 standard deviations below the observed yield. At a warming of +4 K, the results show a yield reduction of 37% and severe crop failures which previously only occurred once in 19.7 years are expected to happen every 2.5 years. Crops simulated with a resistance to high temperature stress show an increase in yields in all climate conditions compared to unadapted crops; however, they still experience more crop failures than the unadapted crop in the control climate. specialized AFRIQUE DE L'OUEST 072 021 076 151 2 205-217 2018 0165-0009 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010074509 10.1007/s10584-018-2290-3 0165-0009 [F B010074509] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010074509 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2018/12/010074509.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2019-01-10 2023-07-11 fdi:010074509 fre