Boavida-Portugal J. auteur aut IRD Rosa R. auteur aut IRD Calado R. auteur aut IRD Pinto M. auteur aut IRD Boavida-Portugal I. auteur aut IRD Araujo M. B. auteur aut IRD Guilhaumon François auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access Coastal lobsters support important fisheries all over the world, but there is evidence that climate-induced changes may jeopardize some stocks. Here we present the first global forecasts of changes incoastal lobster species distribution under climate change, using an ensemble of ecological niche models (ENMs). Global changes in richness were projected for 125 coastal lobster species for the end of the century, using a stabilization scenario (4.5 RCP). We compared projected changes in diversity with lobster fisheries data and found that losses in suitable habitat for coastal lobster species were mainly projected in areas with high commercial fishing interest, with species projected to contract their climatic envelope between 40 and 100%. Higher losses of spiny lobsters are projected in the coasts of wider Caribbean/Brazil, eastern Africa and Indo-Pacific region, areas with several directed fisheries and aquacultures, while clawed lobsters are projected to shifts their envelope to northern latitudes likely affecting the North European, North American and Canadian fisheries. Fisheries represent an important resource for local and global economies and understanding how they might be affected by climate change scenarios is paramount when developing specific or regional management strategies. specialized CARAIBES BRESIL AFRIQUE DE L'EST ATLANTIQUE PACIFIQUE OCEAN INDIEN EUROPE AMERIQUE DU NORD ETATS UNIS CANADA 040 036 021 165 12 art. 186 [7 p.] 2018 0025-3162 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010074466 10.1007/s00227-018-3441-9 0025-3162 [F B010074466] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010074466 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2018/12/010074466.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2019-01-10 2023-07-11 fdi:010074466 fre