Raude Jocelyn auteur aut IRD Peretti-Watel P. auteur aut IRD Ward J. auteur aut IRD Flamand C. auteur aut IRD Verger P. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access Background. Although people are likely to underestimate the frequencies of risks to health from common diseases and overestimate those from rare diseases, we still do not know much about reasons for this systematic bias, which is also referred to as primary bias in the literature. In this study, we take advantage of a series of large epidemics of mosquito-borne diseases to examine the accuracy of judgments of risk frequencies. In this aim, we assessed the perceived v. observed prevalence of infection by Zika, chikungunya or dengue fever during these outbreaks, as well as their variations among different subpopulations and epidemiological settings. Methods. We used data drawn from 4 telephone surveys, conducted between 2006 and 2016, among representative samples of the adult population in tropical regions (Reunion, Martinique, and French Guiana). The participants were asked to estimate the prevalence of these infections by using a natural frequency scale. Results. The surveys showed that 1) most people greatly overestimated the prevalence of infection by arbovirus, 2) these risk overestimations fell considerably as the actual prevalence of these diseases increased, 3) the better-educated and male participants consistently yielded less inaccurate risk estimates across epidemics, and 4) these biases in the perception of prevalence of these infectious diseases are relatively well predicted by the probability weighting function developed in the field of behavioral decision making. Conclusions. These findings suggest that the primary bias, which has been found in laboratory experiments to characterize a variety of probabilistic judgments, equally affects perception of prevalence of acute infectious diseases in epidemic settings. They also indicate that numeracy may play a considerable role in people's ability to transform epidemiological observations from their social environment to more accurate risk estimates. specialized perceived prevalence primary bias probability weighting function white male effect REUNION MARTINIQUE GUYANE FRANCAISE 052 38 3 377-389 2018 0272-989X https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072751 10.1177/0272989x17750845 0272-989X [F B010072751] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072751 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2018/05/010072751.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2018-06-01 2023-07-11 fdi:010072751 fre