@article{fdi:010072687,
  title = {{R}econstruction of local sea levels at {S}outh {W}est {P}acific {I}slands : a multiple linear regression approach (1988-2014)},
  author = {{K}umar, {V}. and {M}elet, {A}. and {M}eyssignac, {B}. and {G}anachaud, {A}lexandre and {K}essler, {W}. {S}. and {S}ingh, {A}. and {A}ucan, {J}er{\^o}me},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{R}ising sea levels are a critical concern in small island nations. {T}he problem is especially serious in the western south {P}acific, where the total sea level rise over the last 60 years has been up to 3 times the global average. {I}n this study, we aim at reconstructing sea levels at selected sites in the region ({S}uva, {L}autoka{F}iji, and {N}oumea{N}ew {C}aledonia) as a multilinear regression ({MLR}) of atmospheric and oceanic variables. {W}e focus on sea level variability at interannual-to-interdecadal time scales, and trend over the 1988-2014 period. {L}ocal sea levels are first expressed as a sum of steric and mass changes. {T}hen a dynamical approach is used based on wind stress curl as a proxy for the thermosteric component, as wind stress curl anomalies can modulate the thermocline depth and resultant sea levels via {R}ossby wave propagation. {S}tatistically significant predictors among wind stress curl, halosteric sea level, zonal/meridional wind stress components, and sea surface temperature are used to construct a {MLR} model simulating local sea levels. {A}lthough we are focusing on the local scale, the global mean sea level needs to be adjusted for. {O}ur reconstructions provide insights on key drivers of sea level variability at the selected sites, showing that while local dynamics and the global signal modulate sea level to a given extent, most of the variance is driven by regional factors. {O}n average, the {MLR} model is able to reproduce 82% of the variance in island sea level, and could be used to derive local sea level projections via downscaling of climate models.},
  keywords = {local sea levels ; statistical downscaling ; {PACIFIQUE} {SUD} {OUEST} ; {FIDJI} ; {NOUVELLE} {CALEDONIE} ; {SUVA} ; {LOTOKA} ; {NOUMEA}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{J}ournal of {G}eophysical {R}esearch. {O}ceans},
  volume = {123},
  numero = {2},
  pages = {1502--1518},
  ISSN = {2169-9275},
  year = {2018},
  DOI = {10.1002/2017jc013053},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010072687},
}