Swingedouw D. auteur aut IRD Mignot Juliette auteur aut IRD Guilyardi E. auteur aut IRD Nguyen S. auteur aut IRD Ormieres L. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access The period running from 1998 to 2012 has experienced a slower increase in global temperature at the surface of the Earth than the decades before. Several explanations have been proposed, ranging from internal variability of the climate system to a contribution of the natural external forcing. In this study, we use the IPSL-CM5A-LR climate model to test these different hypotheses. We consider historical simulations, including observed external forcing, in which nudging towards observed sea surface temperature has been applied to different regions of the ocean to phase the decadal variability of large-scale modes in the Atlantic and the Pacific to observations. We find that phasing the tropical Pacific is reducing the warming trend detected in historical simulations by a factor of two, but the remaining trend is still twice as large as the observed one. Combining the tropical Pacific phasing and the potential effect of recent eruptions allows us to fully reproduce the observed hiatus. Conversely, nudging the Atlantic does not drive any hiatus in this model. specialized Climate and ocean dynamics Global warming Hiatus Pacemaker experiments Climate models Surface nudging Global temperature trends ATLANTIQUE PACIFIQUE ZONE TROPICALE 032 021 020 349 8 369-379 2017 1631-0713 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010071935 10.1016/j.crte.2017.09.014 1631-0713 [F B010071935] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010071935 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/divers18-01/010071935.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2018-02-05 2023-07-11 fdi:010071935 fre