@incollection{fdi:010070573,
  title = {{R}evisiting historical climatic signals to better explore the future : prospects of water cycle changes in {C}entral {S}ahel},
  author = {{L}eauthaud, {C}. and {D}emarty, {J}{\'e}r{\^o}me and {C}appelaere, {B}ernard and {G}rippa, {M}. and {K}ergoat, {L}. and {V}elluet, {C}. and {G}uichard, {F}. and {M}ougin, {E}. and {C}helbi, {S}. and {S}ultan, {B}enjamin},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{R}ainfall and climatic conditions are the main drivers of natural and cultivated vegetation productivity in the semiarid region of {C}entral {S}ahel. {I}n a context of decreasing cultivable area per capita, understanding and predicting changes in the water cycle are crucial. {Y}et, it remains challenging to project future climatic conditions in {W}est {A}frica since there is no consensus on the sign of future precipitation changes in simulations coming from climate models. {T}he {S}ahel region has experienced severe climatic changes in the past 60 years that can provide a first basis to understand the response of the water cycle to non-stationary conditions in this part of the world. {T}he objective of this study was to better understand the response of the water cycle to highly variable climatic regimes in {C}entral {S}ahel using historical climate records and the coupling of a land surface energy and water model with a vegetation model that, when combined, simulated the {S}ahelian water, energy and vegetation cycles. {T}o do so, we relied on a reconstructed long-term climate series in {N}iamey, {R}epublic of {N}iger, in which three precipitation regimes can be distinguished with a relative deficit exceeding 25% for the driest period compared to the wettest period. {T}wo temperature scenarios (+2 and +4 degrees {C}) consistent with future warming scenarios were superimposed to this climatic signal to generate six virtual future 20-year climate time series. {S}imulations by the two coupled models forced by these virtual scenarios showed a strong response of the water budget and its components to temperature and precipitation changes, including decreases in transpiration, runoff and drainage for all scenarios but those with highest precipitation. {S}uch climatic changes also strongly impacted soil temperature and moisture. {T}his study illustrates the potential of using the strong climatic variations recorded in the past decades to better understand potential future climate variations.},
  keywords = {{CYCLE} {HYDROLOGIQUE} ; {CLIMAT} ; {VARIATION} ; {METHODOLOGIE} ; {MODELISATION} ; {SIMULATION} ; {VEGETATION} ; {PRECIPITATION} ; {TEMPERATURE} ; {BILAN} {HYDROLOGIQUE} ; {SOL} ; {VARIABILITE} ; {HISTOIRE} ; {PREVISION} ; {CHANGEMENT} {CLIMATIQUE} ; {NIGER} ; {ZONE} {SAHELIENNE}},
  booktitle = {{H}ydrologic non-stationarity and extrapolating models to predict the future},
  numero = {371},
  pages = {195--201},
  address = {{G}{\¨o}ttingen},
  publisher = {{C}opernicus},
  series = {{P}roceedings of the {I}nternational {A}ssociation of {H}ydrological {S}ciences},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.5194/piahs-371-195-2015},
  ISSN = {2199-899{X}},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070573},
}