Hertig E. auteur aut IRD Tramblay Yves auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access The complexity of the Mediterranean climate with its high precipitation variability and its unequal seasonal distribution with a wet season from approximately October to April and a dry season in summer set general conditions for a high vulnerability of the Mediterranean area to droughts. In the last few decades the risk of drought episodes appears to be enhanced in the Mediterranean area due to temperature increases combined with precipitation decreases. This general change towards warmer and dryer conditions is expected to continue in the future. In the present study droughts are represented by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), at 114 stations located across the Mediterranean area. The SPI is a normalized measure of drought severity relative to a specific location, obtained from rainfall totals aggregated over different time periods. This allows a comparison of different locations and the delineation of homogeneous regions with similar SPI variability. 13 regions have been identified. A downscaling approach using circulation types based on geopotential heights and relative humidity as predictors has been set up to downscale the SPI time series in the different regions. The downscaling approach has been validated using running 21 years validation periods, in order to assess the skill of the method during different climatic conditions and to detect possible non-stationarities in the predictors-predictand relationships. Results show that the downscaling method provided satisfactory results, except for the most arid regions. Future projections, provided from a three member ensemble of the MPI-ESM-LR model under scenario RCP 8.5, indicate an increase in the drought severity and occurrence for the whole Mediterranean region for the period 2070-2100. specialized Droughts Mediterranean area Climate change Statistical downscaling MEDITERRANEE 062 021 Lionello P. ed. edt IRD Ozsoy E. ed. edt IRD Planton S. ed. edt IRD Zanchetta G. ed. edt IRD 151 No Special 36-48 2017 0921-8181 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070289 10.1016/j.gloPlacha.2016.10.015 0921-8181 [F B010070289] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070289 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2017/08/010070289.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2017-09-05 2023-07-11 fdi:010070289 fre