Defrance Dimitri auteur aut IRD Ramstein G. auteur aut IRD Charbit S. auteur aut IRD Vrac M. auteur aut IRD Famien A. M. auteur aut IRD Sultan Benjamin auteur aut IRD Swingedouw D. auteur aut IRD Dumas C. auteur aut IRD Gemenne F. auteur aut IRD Alvarez-Solas J. auteur aut IRD Vanderlinden J. P. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access The acceleration of ice sheet melting has been observed over the last few decades. Recent observations and modeling studies have suggested that the ice sheet contribution to future sea level rise could have been underestimated in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change report. The ensuing freshwater discharge coming from ice sheets could have significant impacts on global climate, and especially on the vulnerable tropical areas. During the last glacial.deglacial period, megadrought episodes were observed in the Sahel region at the time of massive iceberg surges, leading to large freshwater discharges. In the future, such episodes have the potential to induce a drastic destabilization of the Sahelian agro-ecosystem. Using a climate modeling approach, we investigate this issue by superimposing on the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 (RCP8.5) baseline experiment a Greenland flash melting scenario corresponding to an additional sea level rise ranging from 0.5 m to 3 m. Our model response to freshwater discharge coming from Greenland melting reveals a significant decrease of the West African monsoon rainfall, leading to changes in agricultural practices. Combined with a strong population increase, described by different demography projections, important human migration flows could be potentially induced. We estimate that, without any adaptation measures, tens to hundreds million people could be forced to leave the Sahel by the end of this century. On top of this quantification, the sea level rise impact over coastal areas has to be superimposed, implying that the Sahel population could be strongly at threat in case of rapid Greenland melting. specialized climate change ice sheet melting impact vulnerability Sahel GROENLAND ATLANTIQUE NORD AFRIQUE DE l'OUEST SAHEL 062 032 021 020 108 076 114 25 6533-6538 2017 0027-8424 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070248 10.1073/pnas.1619358114 0027-8424 [F B010070248] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010070248 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2017/07/010070248.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2017-07-26 2023-07-11 fdi:010070248 fre