Marchane A. auteur aut IRD Tramblay Yves auteur aut IRD Hanich L. auteur aut IRD Ruelland D. auteur aut IRD Jarlan Lionel auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access This study aimed to quantify possible climate change impacts on runoff for the Rheraya catchment (225km(2)) located in the High Atlas Mountains of Morocco, south of Marrakech city. Two monthly water balance models, including a snow module, were considered to reproduce the monthly surface runoff for the period 19892009. Additionally, an ensemble of five regional climate models from the Med-CORDEX initiative was considered to evaluate future changes in precipitation and temperature, according to the two emissions scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The future projections for the period 20492065 under the two scenarios indicate higher temperatures (+1.4 degrees C to +2.6 degrees C) and a decrease in total precipitation (-22% to -31%). The hydrological projections under these climate scenarios indicate a significant decrease in surface runoff (-19% to -63%, depending on the scenario and hydrological model) mainly caused by a significant decline in snow amounts, related to reduced precipitation and increased temperature. Changes in potential evapotranspiration were not considered here, since its estimation over long periods remains a challenge in such data-sparse mountainous catchments. Further work is required to compare the results obtained with different downscaling methods and different hydrological model structures, to better reproduce the hydro-climatic behaviour of the catchment. specialized water resources climate changes Med-CORDEX climate scenarios MAROC HAUT ATLAS 062 021 62 6 979-995 2017 0262-6667 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010069516 10.1080/02626667.2017.1283042 0262-6667 [F B010069516] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010069516 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2017/05/010069516.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2017-06-01 2023-07-11 fdi:010069516 fre