A sequential approach to calibrate ecosystem models with multiple time series data

A sequential approach to calibrate ecosystem models with multiple time series data Oliveros-Ramos R. auteur aut IRD Verley Philippe auteur aut IRD Echevin Vincent auteur aut IRD Shin Yunne-Jai auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access When models are aimed to support decision-making, their credibility is essential to consider. Model fitting to observed data is one major criterion to assess such credibility. However, due to the complexity of ecosystem models making their calibration more challenging, the scientific community has given more attention to the exploration of model behavior than to a rigorous comparison to observations. This work highlights some issues related to the comparison of complex ecosystem models to data and proposes a methodology for a sequential multi-phases calibration (or parameter estimation) of ecosystem models. We first propose two criteria to classify the parameters of a model: the model dependency and the time variability of the parameters. Then, these criteria and the availability of approximate initial estimates are used as decision rules to determine which parameters need to be estimated, and their precedence order in the sequential calibration process. The end-to-end (E2E) ecosystem model ROMS-PISCES-OSMOSE applied to the Northern Humboldt Current Ecosystem is used as an illustrative case study. The model is calibrated using an evolutionary algorithm and a likelihood approach to fit time series data of landings, abundance indices and catch at length distributions from 1992 to 2008. Testing different calibration schemes regarding the number of phases, the precedence of the parameters' estimation, and the consideration of time varying parameters, the results show that the multiple-phase calibration conducted under our criteria allowed to improve the model fit. specialized Stochastic models Ecosystem model Model calibration Model fitting Inverse problems Parameter estimation Data time series Humboldt Current Ecosystem Peru PEROU PACIFIQUE SUD HUMBOLDT COURANT 036 020 Progress in Oceanography 151 227-244 2017 0079-6611 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010069394 10.1016/j.pocean.2017.01.002 0079-6611 [F B010069394] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010069394 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2017/04/010069394.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2017-05-09 2023-07-11 fdi:010069394 fre