Champagne C. auteur aut IRD Salthouse D. G. auteur aut IRD Paul R. auteur aut IRD Cao-Lormeau V. M. auteur aut IRD Roche Benjamin auteur aut IRD Cazelles B. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf reformatted digital access Before the outbreak that reached the Americas in 2015, Zika virus (ZIKV) circulated in Asia and the Pacific: these past epidemics can be highly informative on the key parameters driving virus transmission, such as the basic reproduction number (R-0). We compare two compartmental models with different mosquito representations, using surveillance and seroprevalence data for several ZIKV outbreaks in Pacific islands (Yap, Micronesia 2007, Tahiti and Moorea, French Polynesia 2013-2014, New Caledonia 2014). Models are estimated in a stochastic framework with recent Bayesian techniques. R0 for the Pacific ZIKV epidemics is estimated between 1.5 and 4.1, the smallest islands displaying higher and more variable values. This relatively low range of R0 suggests that intervention strategies developed for other flaviviruses should enable as, if not more effective control of ZIKV. Our study also highlights the importance of seroprevalence data for precise quantitative analysis of pathogen propagation, to design prevention and control strategies. specialized PACIFIQUE MICRONESIE POLYNESIE FRANCAISE NOUVELLE CALEDONIE 052 020 5 e19874 [30 p.] 2016 2050-084X https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010069263 10.7554/eLife.19874.001 2050-084X [F B010069263] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010069263 https://horizon.documentation.ird.fr/exl-doc/pleins_textes/divers17-03/010069263.pdf IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2017-04-04 2017-08-23 fdi:010069263 fre