@article{fdi:010066899,
  title = {{P}otential escalation of heat-related working costs with climate and socioeconomic changes in {C}hina},
  author = {{Z}hao, {Y}. and {S}ultan, {B}enjamin and {V}autard, {R}. and {B}raconnot, {P}. and {W}ang, {H}. {J}. {J}. and {D}ucharne, {A}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{G}lobal climate change will increase the frequency of hot temperatures, impairing health and productivity for millions of working people and raising labor costs. {I}n mainland {C}hina, high-temperature subsidies ({HTS}s) are allocated to employees for each working day in extremely hot environments, but the potential heat-related increase in labor cost has not been evaluated so far. {H}ere, we estimate the potential {HTS} cost in current and future climates under different scenarios of socioeconomic development and radiative forcing ({R}epresentative {C}oncentration {P}athway), taking uncertainties from the climate model structure and bias correction into account. {O}n average, the total {HTS} in {C}hina is estimated at 38.6 billion yuan/y ({US} $ 6.22 billion/y) over the 1979-2005 period, which is equivalent to 0.2% of the gross domestic product ({GDP}). {A}ssuming that the {HTS} standards (per employee per hot day) remain unchanged throughout the 21st century, the total {HTS} may reach 250 billion yuan/y in the 2030s and 1,000 billion yuan/y in 2100. {W}e further show that, without specific adaptation, the increased {HTS} cost is mainly determined by population growth until the 2030s and climate change after the mid-21st century because of increasingly frequent hot weather. {A}ccounting for the likely possibility that {HTS} standards follow the wages, the share of {GDP} devoted to {HTS} could become as high as 3% at the end of 21st century.},
  keywords = {high-temperature subsidies ; {CMIP}5 ; {GDP} ; {ANOVA} ; climate change ; {CHINE}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}roceedings of the {N}ational {A}cademy of {S}ciences of the {U}nited {S}tates of {A}merica},
  volume = {113},
  numero = {17},
  pages = {4640--4645},
  ISSN = {0027-8424},
  year = {2016},
  DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1521828113},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010066899},
}