Publications des scientifiques de l'IRD

Mangiarotti Sylvain. (2015). Low dimensional chaotic models for the plague epidemic in Bombay (1896-1911). Chaos Solitons and Fractals, 81 (A), p. 184-196. ISSN 0960-0779.

Titre du document
Low dimensional chaotic models for the plague epidemic in Bombay (1896-1911)
Année de publication
2015
Type de document
Article référencé dans le Web of Science WOS:000366204500021
Auteurs
Mangiarotti Sylvain
Source
Chaos Solitons and Fractals, 2015, 81 (A), p. 184-196 ISSN 0960-0779
A plague epidemic broke out in Bombay in 1896 and became endemic. From 1905 to 1911, the epidemic was closely monitored by an Advisory Committee appointed to investigate the causes of the disease in any way. An impressive quantity of information was gathered, analyzed and published. Published data include records of the number of people who died from plague, and of the two main populations of rodents which were infected by plague in Bombay city. In the present paper, these data are revisited using a global modeling technique. This technique is applied to both single and multivariate observational time series. Several models are obtained for which a chaotic behavior can be observed. Obtaining such models proves that the dynamics of plague can be approximated by low-dimensional deterministic systems that can produce chaos. The multivariate models give a strong argument for interactive couplings between the epidemic and the epizootics of the two main species of rat. An interpretation of this coupling is given.
Plan de classement
Sciences fondamentales / Techniques d'analyse et de recherche [020] ; Santé : généralités [050] ; Entomologie médicale / Parasitologie / Virologie [052] ; Sciences du monde animal [080]
Description Géographique
INDE ; BOMBAY
Localisation
Fonds IRD [F B010065521]
Identifiant IRD
fdi:010065521
Contact