Cai W. J. auteur aut IRD Santoso A. auteur aut IRD Wang G. J. auteur aut IRD Yeh S. W. auteur aut IRD An S. I. auteur aut IRD Cobb K. M. auteur aut IRD Collins M. auteur aut IRD Guilyardi E. auteur aut IRD Jin F. F. auteur aut IRD Kug J. S. auteur aut IRD Lengaigne Matthieu auteur aut IRD McPhaden M. J. auteur aut IRD Takahashi K. auteur aut IRD Timmermann A. auteur aut IRD Vecchi G. auteur aut IRD Watanabe M. auteur aut IRD Wu L. X. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access The El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant climate phenomenon affecting extreme weather conditions worldwide. Its response to greenhouse warming has challenged scientists for decades, despite model agreement on projected changes in mean state. Recent studies have provided new insights into the elusive links between changes in ENSO and in the mean state of the Pacific climate. The projected slow-down in Walker circulation is expected to weaken equatorial Pacific Ocean currents, boosting the occurrences of eastward-propagating warm surface anomalies that characterize observed extreme El Nino events. Accelerated equatorial Pacific warming, particularly in the east, is expected to induce extreme rainfall in the eastern equatorial Pacific and extreme equatorward swings of the Pacific convergence zones, both of which are features of extreme El Nino. The frequency of extreme La Nina is also expected to increase in response to more extreme El Ninos, an accelerated maritime continent warming and surface-intensified ocean warming. ENSO-related catastrophic weather events are thus likely to occur more frequently with unabated greenhouse-gas emissions. But model biases and recent observed strengthening of the Walker circulation highlight the need for further testing as new models, observations and insights become available. specialized PACIFIQUE OCEAN INDIEN 032 021 5 9 849-859 2015 1758-678X https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064948 10.1038/nclimate2743 1758-678X [F B010064948] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064948 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2015/09/010064948.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2015-10-07 2017-08-23 fdi:010064948 fre