@article{fdi:010064855,
  title = {{D}ynamical malaria models reveal how immunity buffers effect of climate variability},
  author = {{L}aneria, {K}. and {P}aul, {R}. {E}. and {T}all, {A}. and {F}aye, {J}. and {D}iene-{S}arr, {F}. and {S}okhna, {C}heikh and {T}rape, {J}ean-{F}ran{\c{c}}ois and {R}odo, {X}.},
  editor = {},
  language = {{ENG}},
  abstract = {{A}ssessing the influence of climate on the incidence of {P}lasmodium falciparum malaria worldwide and how it might impact local malaria dynamics is complex and extrapolation to other settings or future times is controversial. {T}his is especially true in the light of the particularities of the short- and long-term immune responses to infection. {I}n sites of epidemic malaria transmission, it is widely accepted that climate plays an important role in driving malaria outbreaks. {H}owever, little is known about the role of climate in endemic settings where clinical immunity develops early in life. {T}o disentangle these differences among high-and low-transmission settings we applied a dynamical model to two unique adjacent cohorts of mesoendemic seasonal and holoendemic perennial malaria transmission in {S}enegal followed for two decades, recording daily {P}. falciparum cases. {A}s both cohorts are subject to similar meteorological conditions, we were able to analyze the relevance of different immunological mechanisms compared with climatic forcing in malaria transmission. {T}ransmission was first modeled by using similarly unique datasets of entomological inoculation rate. {A} stochastic nonlinear human-mosquito model that includes rainfall and temperature covariates, drug treatment periods, and population variability is capable of simulating the complete dynamics of reported malaria cases for both villages. {W}e found that under moderate transmission intensity climate is crucial; however, under high endemicity the development of clinical immunity buffers any effect of climate. {O}ur models open the possibility of forecasting malaria from climate in endemic regions but only after accounting for the interaction between climate and immunity.},
  keywords = {{P}lasmodium falciparum malaria ; immunity ; endemicity ; climate ; vector-borne diseases ; {SENEGAL}},
  booktitle = {},
  journal = {{P}roceedings of the {N}ational {A}cademy of {S}ciences of the {U}nited {S}tates of {A}merica},
  volume = {112},
  numero = {28},
  pages = {8786--8791},
  ISSN = {0027-8424},
  year = {2015},
  DOI = {10.1073/pnas.1419047112},
  URL = {https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064855},
}