Descombes P. auteur aut IRD Wisz M. S. auteur aut IRD Leprieur F. auteur aut IRD Parravicini V. auteur aut IRD Heine C. auteur aut IRD Olsen S. M. auteur aut IRD Swingedouw D. auteur aut IRD Kulbicki Michel auteur aut IRD Mouillot D. auteur aut IRD Pellissier L. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change. specialized fish fossil sea surface temperature specialists species distribution model species richness MONDE 036 032 021 020 21 7 2479-2487 2015 1354-1013 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064719 10.1111/gcb.12868 1354-1013 [F B010064719] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010064719 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2015/07/010064719.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2015-07-29 2017-08-23 fdi:010064719 fre