Parravicini Valeriano auteur aut IRD Azzurro E. auteur aut IRD Kulbicki Michel auteur aut IRD Belmaker J. auteur aut IRD text journalArticle eng text/pdf born digital access Climatic niche conservatism, the tendency of species-climate associations to remain unchanged across space and time, is pivotal for forecasting the spread of invasive species and biodiversity changes. Indeed, it represents one of the key assumptions underlying species distribution models (SDMs), the main tool currently available for predicting range shifts of species. However, to date, no comprehensive assessment of niche conservatism is available for the marine realm. We use the invasion by Indo-Pacific tropical fishes into the Mediterranean Sea, the world's most invaded marine basin, to examine the conservatism of the climatic niche. We show that tropical invaders may spread far beyond their native niches and that SDMs do not predict their new distributions better than null models. Our results suggest that SDMs may underestimate the potential spread of invasive species and call for prudence in employing these models in order to forecast species invasion and their response to environmental change. specialized Biological invasion niche conservatism niche expansion niche shift species distribution models MEDITERRANEE 036 020 18 3 246-253 2015 1461-023X https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010063954 10.1111/ele.12401 1461-023X [F B010063954] https://www.documentation.ird.fr/hor/fdi:010063954 https://www.documentation.ird.fr/intranet/publi/2015/03/010063954.pdf Accès réservé (Intranet de l'IRD) IRD - Base Horizon / Pleins textes 2015-04-07 2017-08-23 fdi:010063954 fre